Newspapers and magazines all around the world are reporting significant drops in their circulations, and consequentially lower advertising revenues. I think books are safe because even gadget nuts like me still like a real book, but I think it’s fair to say that print publishing is on it’s way out with online publishing coming on strong. But what about television?
Not long ago TV networks were the golden eggs of a media empire’s portfolio, but nowadays they’re struggling. Between PVRs cutting out the ads, and online video stealing young eye-balls, the television networks have seen better days. Just last week Canadian broadcaster Canwest Global wrote off over $1 billion in value as a result of expected “softness” in the advertising market. You could explain this as an economically related issue, but network TV just isn’t going to be as big as it once was. Cable television has taken off as more and more specialty options become available, but I think in the end their will be a convergence between traditional television and the internet.
So what is the video landscape going to end up looking like? I think there are going to be an amazing number of offerings available to consumers. With internet bandwidth costs going down and download speeds going up, even the most obscure niche markets are going to be profitable to serve. Perhaps Ferret TV won’t be offered by your local cable TV provider, but online they could have a global audience of Ferret lovers that far exceeds any local market. The future of video isn’t going to be about appealing to the lowest common denominator, it’s going to be about aggregating the long-tail markets.
This is a concept that has made Google billions from it’s Adsense program. By offering an easy means through which one can monetize their very niche content, Google has allowed people to prosper in the long-tail. Can the traditional media companies compete in this type of market place? Not likely. I think Google has got this type of offering under wraps, at least from the contextual advertising perspective, but their are a great number of affiliate programs which allow niche website owners to become salespeople for niche goods. But I still don’t see traditional media companies getting on board with affiliate programs.
Online there are very few barriers to entry. Therefore it’s very difficult to do anything of massive scale before someone else comes along and copies you. You can’t get enough of a head start to keep them out of the market, and you can’t use deep pockets to out spend them either. Expensive production values aren’t going to make that big of a difference with online video, although that could change once bandwidth allows us to stream HD content. I know that shortly the Docsis 3 cable modem standard will be released, and that should allow significant gains in transfer speeds.
Previously content was king, but in a media landscape where the depth and scope of content offerings are so broad, it’s hard for me to believe that anymore. The minimum threshold for the quality of content is lower now. Sure if you spend $1 million on some internet based video you could get a lot of viewers, but a thousand videos costing $1,000 would probably do much better. On the internet it’s more about being prolific in your content generation. Our attention spans are much shorter online. We jump from page to page, from tab to tab, and nothing really holds our attention all that long. Even as we watch television, we have way more channels to choose from so we tend to flip around to see a bit of everything. The more general media offerings will always have a place. People will always enjoy the higher production values, and the big stars. What I think is going to happen though, is people aren’t going to pay quite as much attention to the mass media, their attention is going to be spread thinner, and as a result mass media will lose some of it’s value. That is going to be great for the small time internet media producer : )